QUANT RESEARCHER (PREDICTION MARKETS)

About the Role

A quantitative trading firm pioneering frontier markets is incubating a stealth prediction markets project and needs a sharp quant researcher to help build it from the ground up. This is a high-autonomy role at the intersection of market microstructure, probability modeling, and on-chain trading infrastructure — prediction markets are one of crypto's most structurally interesting unsolved problems, and you'll be shaping the research layer that drives edge.

What You'll Do

Build Alpha Models

Develop and backtest quantitative strategies exploiting mispricings and liquidity inefficiencies across prediction market venues.

Own Market Microstructure Research

Analyze order flow, probability calibration, and market structure dynamics specific to binary and categorical outcome markets.

Drive Signal Research

Source, clean, and evaluate novel datasets to construct predictive signals across political, macro, and crypto-native event markets.

Collaborate on Execution Infrastructure

Work closely with quant engineers to translate research into live, low-latency trading systems built in Python and C++.

Requirements

• Strong foundations in probability theory, statistics, and stochastic modeling
• Hands-on experience building and validating quantitative trading strategies
• Proficiency in Python for research; C++ exposure a plus
• Deep understanding of market microstructure and liquidity dynamics
• Comfortable working in fast-moving, high-ambiguity stealth environments
• Prior exposure to crypto markets, DeFi protocols, or on-chain data
• Track record of rigorous, independent research with measurable outcomes

Nice to Have

• Direct experience trading or researching prediction markets
• Familiarity with AMM mechanics and on-chain order flow
• Background in Bayesian inference or forecasting systems
• Published research or competitive forecasting track record

What Success Looks Like

Within 90 days, you've shipped your first validated alpha signal and have a clear research roadmap for the project's core strategy layer. You operate with minimal direction and your models are running in a live testing environment.